According to the experts, the 2026 Houston housing market is projected to be a “Year of Fundamentals,” characterized by a 14% jump in national existing-home sales volume, stable mortgage rates averaging near 6.0%, and modest home price appreciation of roughly 4%. This shift signals a move away from pandemic-era volatility toward a more balanced, predictable environment for both buyers and sellers. Houston is expected to track this national reset while leveraging its strong job growth and new construction pipeline.
Sales Volume: The Great Rebound
After a period of stagnation, the Houston real estate market is expected to see a significant surge in transaction activity, as national forecasts call for existing-home sales will jump by 14% in 2026, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). This rebound is driven by a combination of factors that are especially relevant in a fast-growing metro like Houston:
- Pent-up Demand: Buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines for several years are finally reaching a “psychological barrier” where they are ready to act as rates ease and inventory improves.
- Life Necessities: After years of low turnover, moves spurred by job changes, household formation, and family growth are expected to accelerate across Greater Houston.
- Construction Boom: Houston continues to rank among the national leaders in new home starts, providing the inventory necessary to support higher sales volume in both the suburbs and the Inner Loop.
The Takeaway: For Houston buyers and sellers, this means more listings, more choices, and more realistic timelines compared to the frenzied pandemic years.
Price Appreciation: Sustainable Growth
The era of double-digit price spikes has transitioned into a period of sustainable, moderate appreciation. Most experts forecast that home prices will rise by approximately 4% in 2026, and Houston is expected to land in a similar range given its strong but balanced demand.
This 4% growth rate is viewed as a “healthy” sign for the market. It allows homeowners to continue building equity without pushing homes out of reach for new buyers. Furthermore, because incomes are expected to rise faster than home prices for the first time in years, the affordability gap in Houston is slowly beginning to narrow, especially in master-planned communities and emerging Inner-Loop neighborhoods.
- For Sellers: This points to solid—but not speculative—price gains.
- For Buyers: It signals a window to enter the market before the next leg up in prices.
Mortgage Rates: A Slow Drift Downward
The most significant driver for the 2026 “Housing Reset” is the stabilization of mortgage rates. While we are unlikely to see the record-low rates of 2021 again, major financial authorities are optimistic about a gradual downward drift:
- Fannie Mae expects rates to move below 6% by the end of 2026, specifically forecasting a 5.9% year-end average.
- Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is slightly more conservative, predicting rates will hover between 6.0% and 6.5% as the market normalizes.
- Freddie Mac reports that as of late December 2025, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has already dropped to 6.18%, a significant decrease from the 6.85% average seen a year prior.
As of late December 2025, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has already dropped into the low-6% range from the high-6% range a year prior. Even a slight dip from 6.25% to 6.0% can save a Houston homebuyer hundreds of dollars a month, significantly increasing their purchasing power and confidence.
Strategies for the 2026 Market
For Sellers: Win on Presentation and Pricing
With active for-sale inventory expected to rise by nearly 9% nationally, sellers will face more competition than in previous years. To secure top dollar, The Moore Real Estate Group recommends focusing on “move-in ready” appeal and strategic, data-driven pricing.
- Inner Loop & Close-in Neighborhoods: Prioritize fresh paint, light fixture updates, and curb appeal to stand out against newer townhomes and renovated bungalows.
- Suburban and Newer Communities: Differentiate your home from new builder inventory by highlighting landscaping, window treatments, appliance packages, and completed backyard spaces.
- Pricing Strategy: Use real-time neighborhood data to price in line with the market—not above it—and leave room for buyer requests on repairs or closing costs.
For Buyers: A Rarely Balanced Opportunity
2026 is shaping up to be the most balanced housing market since the pandemic. Neither buyers nor sellers will hold an overwhelming advantage, which creates a rare opportunity for thoughtful negotiations.
- Resale Buyers: Use additional inventory and reduced competition to negotiate repairs, closing cost credits, and realistic option periods.
- New Construction Buyers: Leverage builder incentives, rate buydowns, and upgrade packages as builders adjust to a more normalized sales pace.
- Move-up Buyers: If you are selling and buying in the same market, a more balanced environment can help you avoid being “stuck” between a fast sale and a difficult purchase.
Final Takeaway
The 2026 Houston real estate market is maturing. Success this year will depend on The Moore Real Estate Group’s ability to leverage real-time data, local neighborhood insights, and deep experience in both new construction and resale to help you time your move strategically. Whether you are looking for a resilient new build in the suburbs or a trophy asset in the inner loop, the “Thaw of 2026” offers a rare window of stability in a historically chaotic market.
Ready to map these 2026 trends to your specific neighborhood, price point, and timeline?